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Fundamental-and-Technical-Analysis-in-Forex-Trading-by-Prathilaba

In forex trading, forex analysis is utilized by traders in order to figure out whether to buy or sell a particular pair of currency. The analysis could be technical where tools like charts, etc. are used. On the other hand, it can also be fundamental in nature where economic indicators or the latest news are used to determine the bur or sell off the currency.

So basically, forex trading analysis can be divided into two parts:

  • Fundamental Analysis in Forex
  • Technical Analysis in Forex

Fundamental Analysis

In fundamental analysis, the economic, social, and political factors are considered during the analysis of the demand and supply of a particular currency. This analysis is frequently used to study the changes or fluctuations in the forex market by keeping an eye over the factors, such as GDP, interest rates, and several other forms of economic information that are released by different countries.

While, an analyst usually considers all the factors including economic, social, and political, it is the economic factors or indicators that play a leading role in deciding the market position.

Given below are three main economic indicators that play a major role in making a

Fundamental analysis:

  1. Leading indicators - Leading economic indicators comprises of the factors that represent what is going on or what can happen in the economy of a country. The leading indicators provide with an insight into an economy’s past, present, and future. The leading indicators help in anticipating the future price movements of the currencies and give the traders an advantage of earning the best profits and avoid losses.
  2. Coincident indicators - The reliability of leading indicators depends on the coincident indicators. Coincident indicators are more associated with economic elements like the business cycle of the country. These indicators give a more detailed insight into why and how changes in the economy are taking place activity, how long the change might last, and whether the result will be positive or negative. Some of the coincident indicators are inflation, retail sales, etc.
  3. Lagging indicators - A lagging indicator comprises of the factors that fluctuate only after the country economy has started to follow a particular trend. A lagging indicator is kind of a financial indicator which can only be seen after a huge economic movement or fluctuation takes place. Some of the popular lagging indicators in forex market are unemployment rate and interest rates.

Technical Analysis

Together with fundamental analysis, technical analysis is also very crucial in identifying the position of the forex markets. This is especially very effective and useful in the foreign exchange market, where several retail traders depend solely on technical analysis to determine future price motions of a currency pair.

Technical analysis involves the examination of past price trends so as to determine the future movements in the market using technical studies, and other technical analysis tools. Forex markets can move only in three directions, upwards, downwards, and sideways. One of the most crucial elements needed for the successful implementation operation of technical analysis is a lot of historical data, which is why the forex market is a prime opportunity for those who would like to use technical analysis in their trading.

The main objective of the technical analysis is:

  1. To recognize price trends
  2. Identifying the support or resistance for the price using price graphs and time-frames.

With the help of technical analysis of a forex market, you can ascertain when and from where to enter a forex market, and most importantly when to get out of the market. As, forex market stays open for 24 hours a day, and provides with highest every day turnover as compared to any other financial markets in the world.

Technical Analysis to Identify Trends

As fundamental analysis focuses on whether a currency is overpriced or underpriced as compared to its equilibrium price, technical analysis is more involved with whether the currency is moving towards up, down, or sideways. If a pair of currency makes sudden jump above or beneath a crucial historical price level, then the technical analysis models will supply you with a recommendation to opt for either long or short for that pair of currency based on the price level.

Major trends

There are basically three leading trends that can occur in the forex market. They are upward trends, downward trend, and a sideways trend. Let’s have a look at them:

  1. Upward Trend - It describes the broader trend when the price of a currency is moving upwards. In an upward trend, each consecutive price level is higher than the ones that have already been attained earlier in the trend.
  1. Downward Trend - It represents the broader trend when the price of a currency is moving downwards, with each approaching price level is lower than the one before that.
  1. Sideways Trends - A sideways trend is a trend where the movement of the currency price occurs when the demand and supply of the currency are almost equal. A sideways market trend takes place when the market price of a currency moves within a limit without creating any defined patterns or trends. Price moves in a horizontal way, with neither upward or downward trend taking control of the prices.

Fundamental Analysis Vs Technical Analysis

Fundamental analysis works towards calculating the intrinsic value of a currency based on the data such as GDP, interest rates, inflation, rates, etc. On the other hand, technical analysis utilizes the historical market activities and currency price trends in order to evaluate market price trends in the future.

The fundamental analysis employs a long-run approach to analyze the market conditions while using the data from a number of years. So, fundamental analysis is mostly used by the long-term forex market investors as it assists them in selecting the right currencies who value will increase with time in future. As for technical analysis, it takes a relatively short-term approach in order to analyze the market activities and trends and is used on daily or weekly timeframes. As a result, technical analysis is mostly utilized by day traders who look for the currencies that they can sell in near future and make higher profits. The trading takes place within the short-term period.

If you want to learn how to do Forex Trading in Sri Lanka, or how to choose right Forex Brokers in Sri Lanka, you can refer to Introduction to Forex Trading , and Where to trade Forex Online and type of Forex brokers .

Some of the Best Forex Brokers

ic-market-in-sinhala-sri-lankatickmill-sinhalarobo-forex-in-sinhalapepperstone-forex-brokerfbs-forex-broker

October 17th, 2018

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Forex Trading for beginners in Sri Lanka

Forex has been long time assumed to be the "High Reward High Risk" scheme, which draws on the interests of many. To begin with the Forex Training it is essential to understand the potential of this particular sector that is equally outweighed by its risks.

What is forex trading ?

Forex is the short form of Foreign Exchange, and to be more clear it deals with currency trading. Majorly for commerce and tourism, there is a need to change the currency of one country to its equivalent value of the currency in another country. With globalization considered as the best step towards a perfect industrial world, businesses across the world require Forex.

Forex Trading Risks

Commercial initiatives and businesses that work in foreign countries are under a constant risk of the fluctuations in the value of the currency. When they sell or buy services or goods in other countries, they aim to prevent losses at least, if not gain huge profits. Therefore the foreign exchange markets have a regularized way to provide a hedge against these risks by fixing a particular rate at which the transaction would be concluded by the end of a certain period. In order to comprehend these risks completely, we need to understand the concepts of decentralized markets and centralized markets.

This is often referred to as Forex Volatility. It tells about the level of uncertainty or the risk involved with changes that could be possibly involved with currency exchange rates. A higher volatility denotes how an exchange rate can be spread over a large number of values. Therefore, this risk of high volatility is one of the major things to be considered when you want to invest in Forex services.

Where to trade forex ?

As the risks involved with forex trade is equally perplexing as the potential for gain, it is essential to find a regulated licensed forex broker. Many forex solutions companies exist in the market today, who have gained trust through the years of service. It is recommended to go for a reputable Forex broker like IC Markets, Tickmill, IQ Option, Roboforex or Pepperstone. You can learn about each of these brokers by referring to Regulated Forex Brokers in Sri Lanka article in both English and Sinhala.

Nowadays banks are taking up the forex trading expertise to ease out the process for their clients. The interbank market is a network of various banks around the globe that have commerce and currency exchange among themselves, in various countries. The banks need to work on the sovereign risks and credit risks by themselves, through deep processes of internal auditing. This is needed to keep themselves and their clients safe from losses as much as possible.

Forex acts as an entity to circulate the various currencies with the equivalent value from and to different countries.

Forex Trading Platforms

With most of the forex beginners opting for Forex Trading Software, most of them are available for free.

Some of the beginners resort to FX bots too. These are nothing but Expert Advisors aka EAs. Though it is designed to be helpful throughout, it is often not very reliable when the market changes and they are hardly on the high-profit side. If you are good with the code it works on, you can change it according to the market trends. But this is even more difficult while you are just a beginner.

If you still believe in rising huge profits with EAs, then the best would be MTA 4  / MT5 .

If you want to go by the news updates, the stock updates you see on CNN and Bloomberg are already the discounted prices with the inception of volatility. As the news is out, the Spreads grow, with a high number of re-quotes and slipping stop-losses. So keeping in mind that you a beginner, it is recommended to stay away from new trading until you become a professional in that mode.

cTrader is yet another trading platform similar to MT4 ( Meta Trader 4 ), with more features as it is new to the market. With a better user interface and advanced codes to take stop loss and profit systems, varying chart time frames, cTrader is a good retail trading platformyou can resort to as a beginner.

If you are starting this forex venture, with little investment of your own and think you have the talent to survive the

Must know Forex Trading terms

Pip

Based on the market convention, it is the smallest price move that a particular exchange rate results in.

eg : If GBP/USD jumps from 1.3360 to 1.3361, the .0001 USD is considered as 1 pip.

Upto 4th decimal place is considered in most currency pairs. Upto two decimal places considered in Jap Yen pairs.

Leverage

In literal means, Leverage indicates the control over big things using something small. On the similar tone, Leverage in Forex terms means to control huge transaction in the market with just a small amount in your capital. It involves a great amount of talent and knowledge in Forex domain to take much out on the leverage part of it ( Higher the leverage, higher the risk and higher the profits ! ).

eg : 100:1 leverage means you can control upto $100 with just $1 while 500:1 leverage means you can control $500 with $1

Spread

It denotes the brokerage costs and the equivalent replacement in transaction fees. So basically this is the difference between Buy and Sell price denoted in pips. ( In Meta Trader 4 / 5 you can enable the spread column to get the values easily while in ctrader, it will be shown with currency pairs )

Margin

The investor takes a loan ( not exactly but will refer to it as loan to get the idea correctly ) from the broker on a short-term basis. This loan is equivalent to the amount of leverage taken by the investor. Before a trade can be placed, it is essential for the investor to deposit the money in the margin account. The Forex margin account is on the equivalent level of an equities margin account.

Slippage

When an order is implemented, a slippage occurs if there is no limit order. Otherwise, a slippage can occur when there is less favorable rate than that which has been set initially. Slippage is widely linked with High Volatility.

Learn About Technical and Fundamental Analysis

If you are involved in forex trading, the analysis is the major key to success. Looking into daily, weekly, and monthly charts is essential for both short term and long term trading.

The technical analysis revolves around trend lines, support and resistance lines and eventually the indicators based on these.

The fundamental analysis is needed to understand the impact of news and commerce trends of each country on the Global forex system.

Learn to trade with the trend

Though many believe to invest in the major currencies like the Dollar or the Euro, it is often suggested to go for more of what you see rather than what you believe. It is essential to invest in the currencies that you can significantly see a profit coming in rather than the ones you believe would yield profits later. This is mainly because the market is quite unpredictable and most often assumptions lead to disastrous losses.

So always be up to date with the current trends in the market analysis and align your investments and forex trading accordingly.

Learn Money Management techniques

Before you jump into the deep pool of the Forex market, it is essential to have a good exposure to the requirements in a viable trading plan. Do read about the Forex Money Management Techniques before you decide on the investments wisely.

When it comes to investments, be it short term or long term, patience is what yields you the money. The longer you wait for the market to change, the larger the income. Again it could be risky, as it is FOREX - the huge trend among most people in any country.

Conclusion

As Forex is completely unpredictable, to get off to a good profit start in this domain, we would like to suggest you use a demo account in one of the online trading platforms, without any investment so as to learn the way the market analysis works. Once you make some good improvements, it is better to begin the journey of Forex ventures through a small investment as low as $1 ~ $200. This keeps you confident enough as you learn along, preventing huge losses and yet good incomes.

You can refer useful Forex Trading articles section to learn about Forex in English and Sinhala in Sri Lanka.

July 21st, 2018

Posted In: blog, forex

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Last week,  as expected the price moved down suggesting the continuation of  the overall strong down trend after the possible correction. The price fell to around 1.2465 but made a slight recovery upto around 1.2481 before closing the market last week

බලාපොරුත්තු වූ ලෙසම ඩොලරය දුර්වල වෙමින් තිවුනා කියන්න පුලුවන්. ඩොලරය සම්භන්ධ දුර්වල පුවත් මෙයට මුලික ලෙස බලපෑවා ගිය සතියේදී.  ඩොලරය 1.2465 දක්වා කඩාවැටීම සිද්ද වුණා. ඉන්පසු 1.2465 දක්වා සුළු වැඩි වීමක් සමග සතිය අවසන් වුණා.  

USD / CAD Chart

Weekly USDCAD Fundamental Analysis – 28th August 2017 to 1st September 2017 in Sinhala by prathilaba forex and binary option trading

මේ සතිය තුලදී රටවල් දෙකට අදාල පුවත් පවතින නිසා යම් අවදානයක් යොමු කරන්න පුවත් සදහා. බොහෝ දුරට 1.23 - 1.22 දක්වා ගමන් කිරීමට ඉඩක් තිබෙනවා. එම නිසා support zone එකෙන් පහලදී sell හෝ put order එකකට යොමු වීම වඩාත් සුදුසුයි. ඒවගේම ඔබට පෙනෙනවා ඇති යම් ආකාරයක ට double bottom / tripple bottom pattern එකක් නිර්මාණය වෙමින් තිබෙන ආකාරයකුත්. එම නිසා support zone එකෙන් ඉහල හැරවීමක් සිදුවොවහොත් buy / call order එකකට යොමු වෙන්න පුළුවන් නුමුත් ට්‍රෙන්ඩ් එකට විරුද්ද දිශාව නිසා, ටිකක් පරිස්සමින් ට්‍රේඩ් එකට යොමු වෙන්න ප්‍රධාන පුවත් කීපයකුත් නිකුත් වීමට තිබෙන නිසා.

( සැලකිය යුතුයි : මෙහි සදහන් කරුණු ඔබේ analysis වලට අත්වැලක් කරගන්න මෙය කිසි ලෙසකවත් ට්‍රේඩින් දැමීමට දෙන සිග්නල් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. )

August 28th, 2017

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Last week,  during intial few days USD did manage to recover to around 1.2774 but was not able to make any further higher highs. It kept on dropping till 1.2555. Then slightly recovered back to 1.2580 region where a support zone exists ( It is good example of a breakout retest before making the strong downward movement ). It seems the bearish flag is complete and USD/CAD is heading down again.

මුලසතියේ මුලදී ඩොලරය සමත් වුණා 1.2774 යලි වර්ධනය කරගන්න නුමුත් higher highs ඇති කරගන්න අපොහොසත් වුණා. 1.2555 දක්වා දැඩි අඩු වීමකට ලක්වුණා. 1.2580 තිබෙන support zone එක නිසා එම ප්‍රදේශයට යලි සුළු වශයෙන් පැමිණෙන්න හැකි වුණා ( මෙය breakout එක restest කරපු අවස්ථාවක් කියන්නත් පුළුවන් ). bearish flag pattern එක බොහෝ දුරට සාර්ථක භාව පෙන්නුම් කරපු සතියක්.

USD / CAD Chart

Weekly USDCAD Fundamental Analysis – 21st August 2017 to 25th August 2017 in Sinhala by prathilaba forex and binary option trading

 

බොහෝ දුරට downtrend එක නැවත ඇතිවෙමින් තියෙනවා කියලා නිගමනය කරන්න පුළුවන්. එම නිසා බොහෝ දුරට 1.25-1.23 දක්වා අඩුවෙමින් පවතින්න ඉඩ තියෙනවා. එම නිසා Call / put order එකකට යොමු වීම වඩාත් සුදුසයි. 

( සැලකිය යුතුයි : මෙහි සදහන් කරුණු ඔබේ analysis වලට අත්වැලක් කරගන්න මෙය කිසි ලෙසකවත් ට්‍රේඩින් දැමීමට දෙන සිග්නල් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. )

August 21st, 2017

Posted In: Fundamental Analysis

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Last week,  the CAD was weak during initial period of the month mainly due to falling oil prices and strong economic data from USA. But  on friday the CPI data  from USA  was weaker than expected which resulted in CAD making a slight recovery in pricing. 

ගිය සතිය මුලදී ඇමෙරිකානු ඩොලරය සමත් වුණා ඊට ප්‍රථම සතිය අගභාගයේදී ලබාගත් ශක්තිමත් භාවය රැකගන්න නුමුත් සතිය අවසානයේ නිකුත් වූ දුර්වල CPI වාර්තාව නිසා නැවත සුළු කඩා වැටීමට ලක්වී තිබෙනවා. සතිය මුලදි කැනේඩියානු ඩොලරය දුර්වල වන්න බොහෝ දුරට තෙල් මිලෙහි පවතින අඩුවීමත් දැඩි ලෙස බලපෑවා.

USD / CAD Chart

Weekly USDCAD Fundamental Analysis – 14th August 2017 to 18th August 2017 in Sinhala by prathilaba forex and binary option trading

මේ සතිය තුලදී රටවල් දෙකටම අදාල පුවත් නිකුත් වීමට තිබෙන නිසා බොහෝ දුරට එම පුවත් මත මාර්කට් එක ගමන් කරන දිශාව තීරණය වෙන්න පුළුවන්. ඒවගේම ලෝකයේ තෙල් නිෂ්පාදනය කරන රටවල් ඉදිරියේදී බොර තෙල් බැරලයක මිල අඩු වීම පාලනය කර ගැනීම සදහා තෙල් නිෂ්පාදනයේ කප්පාදුවක් කිරීමට බොහෝ දුරට ඉඩ තියෙනවා. ඒවගේම කැනේඩියානු මහා බැංකුව පොලී අනුපාතද ඉදිරි මාස වලදි වැඩි කිරීමට ඉඩ තියෙනවා. එම නිසා USD /CAD ට්‍රේඩ් කිරීමේදී පුවත් සම්බන්දයෙන් වැඩි වාදනයක් යොමු කරන්න. 

බොහෝ දුරට downtrend එක යලි ඇතිවෙන්නත් ලොකු ඉඩ කඩක් තියෙනවා ඇමෙරිකාව සම්බන්ධ පුලුවත් දුර්වල වුවහොත් ( bearish flag pattern එකක් ඇති වෙමින් තියෙන ආකාරයක් පෙන්වනවා නුමුත් තව දින කීපයක් වත් අවශ්‍ය වෙනවා හරියටම අපිට තීරණය කරගන්න pattern එක ).  එසේ නොවුනහොත් බොහෝ දුරට 1.2850 - 1.2600 අතර අඩු වැඩි වෙමින් තියෙන්න පුළුවන්.  

( සැලකිය යුතුයි : මෙහි සදහන් කරුණු ඔබේ analysis වලට අත්වැලක් කරගන්න මෙය කිසි ලෙසකවත් ට්‍රේඩින් දැමීමට දෙන සිග්නල් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. )

August 14th, 2017

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Eur-usd-fundamental-analysis-in-sinhala

Last week EUR/USD was almost on a range market. Mainly fuled by the unexpected political tension between America & North Korea together with strong and week news  releases from USA. At the initial stage many thought the market made the reversal at last as it broke thorugh 1.1710 several times but was not able to retain it.  On Friday the week CPI reports from USA pushed the price up back to 1.1821.

ගිය සතියේ එක්තරා ආකාරයක range මාර්කට් එකක් EUR /USD පෙන්නුම් කරා කිව්වත් නිවැරදියි. ගිය සතිය පුරවටම ඇමෙරිකාව සහ උතුරු කොරියාව අතර පැවති උණුසුම් දේශපාලන වාතාවරණය වගේම සිකුරදා දින දුර්වල අගයක් ගත් ඇමෙරිකානු CPI වාර්තාව, ඩොලරය සතිය මුලදී දැකුවූ ශක්තිමත් භාවය දුර්වල අඩියකට සතිය අවසානයේ ඇද දැමුවා. 1.1710 කඩාගෙන පහලට කීප සැරයක් යන්න උත්සහ කලත් එම අගයෙන් පහල අගයක් රදවාගන්න අපොහොසත් වුන නිසා ප්‍රධාන ට්‍රෙන්ඩ් වෙනස් වීමක් දක්වා වර්ධනය කර ගැනීමට නොහැකි වුණා. සතිය අවසානයේ 1.1821 අගයක් පෙන්වමින් යුරෝ නැවත තම ශක්තිමත් භාවය පෙන්නුම් කලා. 

Weekly EURUSD Fundamental Analysis - 14th August 2017 to 18th August 2017

මුලිකව ට්‍රෙන්ඩ් එක uptrend එකක් වුවත් චාර්ට් එකේ ගොඩක් දුරට double top pattern එකක් ඇති වෙමින් තියෙනවා කියන්න පුළුවන්. නුමුත් මේ සතියේදීත් ඇමරිකානු සහ උතුරු කොරියානු දේශපාලනය උණුසුම් වාතාවරණයක් ගැනීමට ඉඩ තියෙනවා. ඒවගේම ඇමරිකානු retail sales අගය රිනාත්මක භාවක් සහ fomc minutes යම් විදියකින් රිනාත්මක බවක් අගැවුවහොත් සහ යුරෝ CPI වාර්තා ධනාත්මක බවක් පෙන්නුම් කලොත් බොහෝ දුරට දළ වශයෙන් 1.20 - 1.34 දක්වා යුරෝ වැඩි වීමට ඉඩ තියෙනවා ( මාසික චර්ට් එක බැලූ විට tripple bottom එකක අවසාන අදියරේ නැග්මක් තමයි පෙන්නුම් කරන්නේ ). Forex trading සහ Binary trading කරන අයට buy / call එකකට යොමු වෙන්න පුළුවන් 1.1920 හෝ ඊට වැඩි අගයකදී. නුමුත් මුලින් සදහන් කල ආකාරයට double top pattern එකක් ඇති වෙමින් තියෙන නිසා බොහෝ දුරට වැඩි වීමක් වෙලා අඩු වීමක් දක්වා ගමන් කරන්නත් ඉඩ තියෙනවා ( ගිය සතියේ වගේම fake out එකක් වෙනන්ත් පුළුවන් ). එම නිසා ට්‍රේඩ් කිරීමේදී ප්‍රධාන පුවත් කීපයට අවදානය යොමු කරන්න.

( සැලකිය යුතුයි : මෙහි සදහන් කරුණු ඔබේ analysis වලට අත්වැලක් කරගන්න මෙය කිසි ලෙසකවත් ට්‍රේඩින් දැමීමට දෙන සිග්නල් නොවන බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න. )

August 13th, 2017

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FX Empire  - Free Trading News and Analysis Latest Youtube Videos

You can find the latest videos published by FX Empire. It provides free daily and weekly technical analysis which is useful for both Forex and Binary Option Trading ( For long time frameworks ).  Good Luck !  😎 

July 16th, 2017

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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Please be advised that certain products and/or multiplier levels may not be available for traders from EEA* countries due to legal restrictions

* සැලකිය යුතුයි  : ඔබ බයිනරි ඔප්ෂන් ට්‍රේඩින් / ෆොරෙක්ස්  සදහා යොදවන මුදල දැඩි අවදානමක ලක්විය හැක. අවදානමක් ගත හැකි අයට පමණක් සුදුසු කරුණු පමණක් මෙහි අඩංගු වේ. මෙය මුදල් ආයෝජනය කිරීම සදහා ලබාදෙන උපදෙස් නොවේ.   ප්‍රතිලාභ.com වෙබ් අඩවියේ අරමුණ ඔබට බයිනරි ඔප්ෂන් ට්‍රේඩින් / ෆොරෙක්ස් සහ වෙනත් අධ්‍යාපනික තොරතුරු ලබාදීම පමණි.  බයිනරි ඔප්ෂන් ට්‍රේඩින් / ෆොරෙක්ස් හරහා සිදුකරණ ආයෝජන අධික ලාභ ලැබෙන සහ අධික අවදානමක් පවතින ආයෝජනයන්ය ( ඉවසීම සහ කැපවීම නොමැති අයට මෙවැනි ට්‍රේඩින් ක්‍රම සුදුසු නොවේ ). කිසි විටක ඔබේ එදිනෙදා වියදමට හෝ ණයට ගත්ත මුදල් මේ සදහා යෙදවීමෙන් වලකින්න. ඒවගේම ඔබගේ රටේ මුදල් නීති සහ රෙගුලාසි වලට අවනත වන්න. ඔබ සිදුකරණ ආයෝජන සදහා සම්පුර්ණ වගකීම ඔබ සතුය. මෙම වෙබ් අඩවිය, එහි ඇඩ්මින්වරුන් හෝ මෙහි සදහන් වෙනත් වෙබ් අඩවි කිසිම වගකීමක් භාර නොගනිණ බව කරුණාවෙන් සලකන්න.

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